Tyler Shoemaker offers his late line movement college football Week 12 best bets.College Football Week 12 Late Line Movement Best Bets from the T Shoe Index:
It’s Thursday, which means it’s time to evaluate the college football betting landscape as it’s shifted throughout the week to see where there’s still some meat on the bone for this week’s betting card, based on my T Shoe Index projections. My condolences to anyone who also had the Over in the Miami (OH)/Kent State game last night, as Kent State scored on a scoop and score that got overturned in the fourth quarter, resulting in the Over losing by 4 points. Tough beat. We’ve been red hot in college football the last couple of weeks so let’s keep that rolling with our college football Week 12 best bets, and there are some plays on the board I think still have value.Hawaii (-2.5; 60) vs. Utah State
As he’s admitted on VSiN programming in the past with our own Tim Murray, Hawaii coach Timmy Chang is absolutely aware of the betting lines each week and seems to make it a point to try to cover. He’s definitely a “bet on” kind of coach that you can trust when the numbers indicate to do so. Here, the Rainbow Warriors are just 2.5-point favorites at Utah State, but TSI indicates this should be more like a touchdown spread, so I’m happy to lay under the field goal with a coach I know is not going to pack it in if he gets a lead. Utah State’s defense is 132nd (out of 134) in the TSI defensive ratings, so even Hawaii’s lackluster offense should be able to find SOME success in this game. The real advantage for the ‘bows is on defense, where they have a top 60 unit, facing a Utah State offense outside the top 80. This game likely ends up around 31-24, according to TSI projections. This line opened Hawaii -2 at sharp offshore books and has been bet up to Hawaii -2.5, indicating we’re likely heading towards a -3 or higher here, so grab it while we can under a field goal.College Football Week 12 Best Bet: Hawaii -2.5 (Play to -3)
Michigan State vs. Illinois (-3; 47.5)
After opening at a key number of 48, this total has been inched down to 47.5, and TSI indicates even that move isn’t far enough, projecting just 44.5 points in this game, which is below the key number of 45. Neither one of these teams is particularly inclined to light up the scoreboard and average being just 95th in plays per game between the two of them. This could look a lot like an old-fashioned Big Ten game that ends up 21-17 or so. I don’t think either offense, specifically, is capable of putting up a big number on the opposing defense. Some of my formulas are even as low as 42 for the total projection in this game, and most importantly, none are above the 47.5-point threshold we’re betting into. Bet the Under and for your own sake, don’t watch this game and just check your account after the game.College Football Week 12 Best Bet: Under 47.5 (Play to 45.5)
